The escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has begun to cast a shadow of uncertainty over connectivity to southern Gran Canaria, given the imminent risk of fuel shortages and rising air freight costs. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair—a key operator at Gran Canaria Airport—has warned that, should hostilities continue, there is a "reasonable" risk that kerosene supplies in Europe could be reduced by between 10% and 25% during May and June. This scenario jeopardizes the holiday plans of thousands of European tourists who rely on low-cost airlines to reach the archipelago.
The financial impact is already being felt in airline balance sheets, with fuel prices doubling their usual levels. While the UK Ministry of Energy Security assures that imports from India and the US continue to arrive, operational visibility beyond April is limited. For the Maspalomas-Meloneras destination, any reduction in flight capacity by groups such as Jet2, EasyJet, or Ryanair would directly impact hotel occupancy at the start of the summer season.
Regarding consumer protection, airlines operating from the European Union are obligated to guarantee transportation for passengers affected by cancellations, including rebooking them on other airlines and covering their food and hotel expenses. However, the real risk to tourists' wallets lies in fuel surcharges. While major airlines typically have financial hedging mechanisms to mitigate price increases, package holidays are governed by different regulations: travel agencies can legally charge a surcharge if fuel costs skyrocket, provided it does not exceed 8% of the total trip price.
The sector's profitability is hanging by a thread. Kenton Jarvis, CEO of easyJet, has pointed out that in a business where the margin per seat is barely around €8,50, a €12 increase in fuel costs inevitably forces a response in fares. For southern Gran Canaria, this translates into upward pressure on ticket prices by the end of the year. Experts suggest that, given the uncertainty, booking in advance under the protection of EU law remains the safest option to safeguard against future surcharges or a lack of seat availability.
